After agreeing to a two-year, $38.5 million contract back in January, Lucas Giolito was expected to be a key member of the Boston Red Sox starting rotation. This week, it was discovered that Giolito might be suffering from a UCL tear, raising the possibility that his entire 2024 campaign could be in peril.
I have some terrible news for those of you hoping that things won’t get worse. Giolito’s contract is getting older every day, like warm milk.
Red Sox rumors: There is no insurance on Lucas Giolito’s contract
Sources tell Red Sox insider Rob Bradford that the “Red Sox do not have insurance on Lucas Giolito’s contract.” If that’s the case, Boston’s $18 million payroll salary for this year won’t be alleviated.
It makes sense, on the one hand, why the Red Sox chose not to insure the contract. Giolito has made at least 29 starts in each of his five complete seasons in the main leagues, with the exception of a Tommy John surgery he had while in the minors in 2012. This includes the previous season, when he led the American League with 33 starts.
There was just no solid evidence to suggest that he would sustain a possibly career-ending injury at this early stage.
However, this insurance omission is just another mistake made by Craig Breslow in his brief tenure as Boston’s chief baseball officer. It’s mind-boggling that the $38.5 million contract, which is a lot to offer any athlete, wasn’t at least partially covered. Giolito’s injury also wouldn’t be shocking if the Red Sox decide not to pursue any more elite free agents, considering that they’ve been vocal about wanting to keep salary as low as possible.
Hopefully, there is less truth to the rumors about Giolito’s injury. If so, a second Tommy John procedure will probably be necessary, which means the 29-year-old pitcher might miss all of 2024 and possibly some of 2025.
The only two Boston starters who have previously tossed at least 155 innings in a season are Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello. Last season, Kutter Crawford pitched 129 1/3 innings, which was a career high. Last year, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock only combined for 178 1/3, and Josh Winckowski made all but one of his 60 appearances in 2023 as a reliever.
Regardless of whether Giolito’s season is over, it’s obvious that the Red Sox may need to think about bringing in some more seasoned relievers, particularly if making the playoffs for the first time since 2021 is the ultimate objective.
Ultimately, the Red Sox are currently favored by FanDuel Sportsbook to miss the 2024 MLB postseason at -500 odds, which translates to an implied probability of 83.3%.